Over the course of last week, several live-service games have announced they are shutting down. These include recent launches such as the Epic Games battle royaleRumbleverse, but also some titles that have been around for several years like Oculus’Echo VR.Even though some of the closures were planned to take place at this time, fans are understandably left wondering what this might suggest for thefuture of live-service games.
Live-service games, also known as “games as a service,” have been on the rise for the better part of two decades. Unlike titles that are sold as a product with a one-time price point, games as a service add content progressively while players support development by paying a subscription fee orpurchasing in-game items or cosmetics. From older titles such asWorld of WarcraftorLeague of Legends, to the more modern blueprints set byFortniteandGenshin Impact, their success has spurred an era of growth in the number of live-service games on the market. However, recent developments suggest there may be too many live-service titles, and players are reacting to the glut.
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Live-Service Closures are Ramping Up
Babylon’s Fallwas highly anticipated before launch thanks to the pedigree of PlatinumGames, but the action-RPG ends service at the end of February - barely a year after launch. ForRumbleverse, the battle royale is shutting down after only six months. Meanwhile, first-person shooterCrossfireXannounced a service closurethat will be complete by May, andBack 4 Blooddeveloper Turtle Rock Studios announced it would end development earlier this month. Even the fan-favorite dodgeball-inspired titleKnockout Citywasn’t spared, though EA has confirmed a private server version will become available. If even Respawn Entertainment’sApex Legends Mobileor Crystal Dynamics’Marvel’s Avengerscan’t last more than a few years, there appears to be a shift in the market away from live-service games.
In many cases, these closures don’t make any kind of statement about quality.Knockout Citymanaged to successfully combine dodgeball andRPG combat mechanics, and aside fromDodgeball Academiathere aren’t any other notable games that can say the same. Several prominent names have survived the recent wave of announements, includingRainbow Six Siege,Warframe,Sea of Thieves, andGenshin Impact. On the surface, those titles appear to have a healthy playerbases, but that can change at any point. Many are right to wonder whether they’re favorite games might be next on the chopping block.
The Live-Service Gaming Market May be Changing
Thesuccess ofLeague of Legends,World of Warcraft, Fortnite,and other major live-service titles created an incentive for the development of more. Over the last decade, countless titles were launched, which inflated a sort of speculative live-service bubble. Speculative bubbles appear when investors unsustainably invest in a commodity, asset class, or industry, leading to a spike in value that keeps increasing until investors realize their assets aren’t worth as much as they thought. When the market corrects itself to reflect what the assets are actually worth, that’s often when companies declare bankruptcy and people lose their jobs.
In the case of live-service games, the biggest investors are players. Development studios compete over market share, but also a player’s time. With more and more games on the market, not to mention general downward economic trends, many players can no longer afford to invest in ongoing experiences. The highest-earning franchises can afford to take the hit, but for brand-new IPs likeBack 4 Bloodthat depend on their investors to break even, the prospect of no server maintenance, unpaid bills, and layoffs is tangible enough to justify pulling the plug. Fans will have to wait and see whether this means less live-service development going forward, even if it takes time for studio executives to fully course-correct.
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